The euro has seen a sharp drop against the U.S. dollar following the positive economic data supporting the Dollar Index. However, this decline is not necessarily a sign of strong bearish momentum, but could rather be part of liquidity building above the 1.1575 level. Prices have continued to fall since the start of the week and are now trading around 1.1473. A LIQ VOID has formed—essentially a price gap—and this area is now considered a key decision zone. A bounce lower or full closure of the void could shift the market direction, and much will depend on Jerome Powell’s speech later today. It’s best to wait and watch how price reacts at this level.

The Dollar Index has surged and is currently trading around 99.55 following the ADP employment report, which showed a strong increase in job numbers, registering 104,000 new jobs (not 107,000). Investors now await Powell’s speech following the Fed’s rate decision, which could shape the market outlook. Given this strong data, Powell may have little room to support rate cuts as President Trump hoped. His tone is likely to impact EUR/USD significantly.

A rejection from the 1.1510 zone could support further declines toward 1.1370.

However, a break above 1.1575 could fuel bullish momentum toward the 1.1690 level.