Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
EUR/USD continues to move in a downward trend on both the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes. Prices rejected from a Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone on the 4-hour chart and are currently trading around 1.1423, after also rejecting from an FVG zone on the 1-hour chart. The bearish bias is expected to continue throughout the day.
Key Economic News
Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday included the following points:
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The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, despite pressure from Trump and some Fed members calling for a rate cut.
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Powell stated that strong employment data and inflation at 2.7% support maintaining a tight monetary policy for now.
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He emphasized that future rate decisions will remain data-dependent, with the Fed ready to move in either direction as needed.
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He hinted that a rate cut this year is not guaranteed, which reduced market expectations for easing in September and pushed the U.S. dollar higher.
These remarks gave strong upward momentum to the dollar. Today, the market is awaiting the release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data and jobless claims, both of which are expected to impact the dollar’s direction.
As a result, these releases are also likely to influence the movement of EUR/USD today.
Liquidity Levels
A rejection from the 1.1465 zone would support further downside toward 1.1370,
and potentially toward 1.1315.
The bearish scenario would be invalidated if price moves up and breaks through the 1.1505 level.
