Analysis of crude oil prices
Oil at the basic level
The war in Ukraine took a dangerous turn after Russia launched drones over Poland this week, an act that Poland believes was a deliberate test of NATO's response.
Poland shot down drones, becoming the first NATO member state to shoot down in the Ukraine war.
Oil is also likely to receive a boost after President Trump announced his readiness to add new tariffs on India and China, the largest importers of Russian oil, to push Russia to negotiate with Ukraine.
The market is evaluating the latest statements by President Trump on possible punitive measures against Russia against the background of the Ukraine war, while the European Union has vowed to tighten sanctions after Russian drones entered Polish airspace.
Oil prices rose, but an increase in US inventories by about 3.9 million barrels limited the gains.
Pessimists point to slowing economies and an increase in OPEC supplies, while optimists focus on the weakening dollar and increasing geopolitical risks.
Oil is caught between increasing supply and geopolitical risks.
Oil at the technical level
Oil prices rose at the beginning of the week after rebounding from the demand zones mentioned in the weekly analysis video here
We still expect a further rise in oil, especially with the possible formation of the bat harmonic model on the four-hour frame.
From this model, we are targeting the levels of USD 69.00 per barrel and beyond.
Currently, oil is trying to reach the levels of the four-hour downtrend, and if it is broken upwards and closes above the levels of 64.30/60 with at least a 4-hour candle, then we expect further oil ascent.
Our targets are at the levels of 65.65, then 67.00 dollars, and finally the levels of 69.00 dollars per barrel.
This scenario fails if the USD 61.00 levels break down to the downside.
