Technical Analysis for EUR/USD – Wednesday, July 2, 2025
The EUR/USD pair moved sideways on the 1-hour timeframe, as the price managed to sweep the liquidity resting above Monday’s high at 1.1805, which is considered a key technical area since it also represents the highest price reached by last month’s candle.
After targeting this liquidity, the market shifted from an upward to a downward movement by breaking below 1.1773, followed by a rejection from the Internal Fair Value Gap (IFVG) formed on the 1-hour chart, which confirms a Market Structure Shift from bullish to bearish.
- Impact of U.S. Employment Data on EUR/USD
Eurozone annual inflation data was released yesterday, July 1st, and came in at 2.0%, matching expectations. This outcome supports the possibility that the European Central Bank will not raise interest rates anytime soon.
The market's focus today is on the U.S. employment data from ADP, which is one of the key economic indicators that directly impact the U.S. dollar and its related currency pairs.
Currently, the U.S. dollar is showing notable strength against most major currencies, which increases the likelihood of continued bearish pressure on EUR/USD during today’s session, especially if the data comes out stronger than expected.
Expected Liquidity Levels
The price is expected to target the 1.1710 level during the upcoming hours, which represents a key support.
If broken, further downside is likely toward the internal liquidity level at 1.1645, which corresponds to the 50% level (Discount Zone) of the last bullish wave
