Analysis of the Australian-New Zealand pair

Australian New Zealander at the basic level

The Australian news pair rose on Wednesday for the fourth consecutive week of highs.

The New Zealand dollar fell to its lowest in more than five months against the Australian dollar, influenced by the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut interest rates by a quarter point as expected, but with more hawkish hints than the market expected, as the New Zealand Reserve left the door open for a new round of monetary easing in the coming months.

The probability of another cut at the next October meeting is estimated at about 50%, while a new cut is almost certainly expected (by more than 100%) in November, unless there is a sudden and unexpected improvement in economic data.

Australian-New Zealander on the technical side

The pair is now trading inside an ascending price channel on the daily frame, as the pair is trying to reach the upper limit of this price channel, with the bat harmonic pattern completed near it.

We are still targeting the levels of 1.1125 to 1.1140, from which it is possible to consider selling the pair for the purpose of Correction to target the lower boundary levels of the price channel at 1.1015 and then the uptrend levels near the levels of 1.0930.

This bearish scenario fails if the levels of 1.1180 are broken and the upper one closes a day candle, then we expect further ascent of the pair in the medium and long term.